Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
